The price of wheat is not a prediction. It is a map of pressure.

There is a simple story we tell about record harvests: more grain, lower price. It is a comfortable narrative because it is linear, easy to remember, and appears to respect common-sense economics. The problem is that agricultural commodity markets do not operate according to narratives. They operate according to calendars, storage costs, and technical convergences that must be read — not assumed.

The 2025/2026 season offers a textbook case of this difference. Global wheat production reached 844.36 million tonnes, a +6% increase from the previous season (799.31 million tonnes) — the largest annual rise recorded in the last decade, 2016–2025. The European Union produced 145.1 million tonnes, a historic record. Russia recovered strongly after the 2024 drought, reaching 90.3 million tonnes. China remains the world’s largest producer at 140.1 million tonnes. The United States continues its recovery from the lows of 2020–2022, reaching 54 million tonnes.

The narrative demands a price collapse. The evidence shows something else: a moderate, gradual correction, temporarily absorbed by global demand and the replenishment of strategic stocks. This is where real discipline begins — not in choosing between optimism and pessimism, but in reading what the futures curve actually says.

Two stories on one curve

The Euronext (MATIF) futures curve contains, in fact, two different stories superimposed on each other. Confusing them is precisely where poor decisions are born.

For deliveries staggered between September 2026 and May 2027, prices rise steadily: 244.75 EUR/tonne in September 2026, 247.00 in December 2026 (+2.25), 248.00 in March 2027 (+1.00), 249.25 in May 2027 (+1.25). This is contango — the normal state of a commodity market, in which more distant prices cover the costs of storage, insurance, and financing. It is not a signal of scarcity. It is the ordinary arithmetic of time.

Then, suddenly, something breaks: the September 2027 contract quotes 237.50 EUR/tonne, 11.75 EUR lower than May 2027 — a drop of nearly 5%. This is backwardation, and its meaning is clear once you know how to read it: the market is already pricing the next Northern Hemisphere harvest and assuming larger supply, therefore a lower price. What this signal does not mean is equally important: it says nothing about autumn 2026. The two markets — the near-term one and the one a year ahead — are temporally segmented. The temptation to merge them into a single “trend” is exactly the kind of error that the discipline of evidence must prevent.

Chicago’s sudden jump and the questions it leaves open

At CBOT, the current price is 706.25 cents/bushel, equivalent to approximately 227.45 EUR/tonne at an EUR/USD rate of ≈1.14 — 17–20 EUR below the Euronext level. Yet this market has just recorded a +4.17% jump in a single session, and the honest question is not “the price rose,” but “why, exactly.”

There are at least three plausible explanations, and none excludes the others: a quality spread — abundant rains during harvest in the EU and Russia reduced protein content and test weight, shifting demand toward higher-quality American wheat; a technical short squeeze — traders holding short positions forced to buy to cover, artificially amplifying the move; or simply unexpected export demand or short-term weather concerns.

For the European producer, the jump is a positive warning signal, not a certainty: if the American market becomes relatively more expensive, international buyers may reorient toward Europe. But the 17–20 EUR differential remains substantial, and without confirmed data from CFTC reports on speculative fund positioning (COT), the jump must be treated as short-term technical noise — not a change in fundamentals. Confusing the two is, once again, the kind of shortcut a volatile market punishes.

A vocabulary that makes thinking possible

• Basis — the difference between the physical (spot) price available immediately and the nearest futures price. In harvest season it is typically negative, because abundant physical supply presses the immediate price lower.
• Contango — more distant delivery contracts are more expensive than nearer ones. The “normal” state of commodities.
• Backwardation — the inverse situation: distant contracts are cheaper, a sign that the market anticipates increased supply or reduced demand in that horizon.
• Quality spread — the price difference between higher-quality (milling) wheat and lower-quality (feed) wheat; it widens when a harvest has quality problems.
• COT / short squeeze — the Commitment of Traders report (CFTC) shows the long/short positions of speculative funds; a short squeeze occurs when a sudden rise forces short traders to buy for cover, artificially amplifying the move.
• Ending stocks-to-use ratio — the ratio of ending stocks to total annual consumption. Above 30–35% indicates surplus supply and downward pressure.

These notions are not decorative jargon. They are the minimum instrument without which every statement above remains an impression, not an evaluation.

How pressure moves through the months

July 2026 (239–242 EUR/tonne) is, structurally, the most unfavourable point of the year on the physical market. Harvesting peaks in the EU and Russia, available volume is at its maximum, and the basis is the most negative of the entire season (−3/−5 EUR below the September contract), because farmers and storage operators, with limited space, are willing to sell at a discount to free silos. Any decision taken now must be weighed against the real cost of one’s own storage — if that cost is low, the pressure to act immediately is smaller than the day’s price would suggest.

August 2026 (241–244 EUR/tonne) is a transition month: the harvest pace slows, some producers begin holding grain in anticipation of an autumn improvement, and the basis narrows gradually without yet confirming a clear recovery.

September 2026 (243–246 EUR/tonne) brings convergence toward the reference contract (244.75) through arbitrage — the basis approaches zero. It is the first month in which market signals become more reliable, and the speed of convergence together with traded volume offer real indications about the solidity of demand for the rest of the season.

October 2026 (244–247 EUR/tonne) shifts attention to the December contract (247.00), and export demand toward North Africa and the Middle East — regions structurally dependent on imports — begins to materialise for winter deliveries. Convergence between CBOT and Euronext becomes, from this month, a relevant indicator: if the differential between the two markets continues to narrow, it is a sign that global demand is solidly absorbing the surplus.

November 2026 (245–248 EUR/tonne): immediate domestic supply tightens as already contracted volumes take effect. If the CBOT jump proves fundamental — supported by real demand or a genuine quality spread, not merely a short squeeze — this month could test the upper end of the band. The distinction between a fundamental move and a purely technical one remains, here, the essential question, and COT reports are the instrument that can settle it.

December 2026 (246–248.5 EUR/tonne) brings the final seasonal convergence toward the contract expiring that month. Liquidity traditionally declines over the holidays, but prices remain supported by accumulated storage costs and by the outlook for 2027 plantings — the moment from which market attention already begins to slide toward the backwardation observed further out on the curve.

What to track instead of what to believe

CBOT–Euronext convergence, CFTC COT reports, the evolution of the quality spread, Southern Hemisphere weather (Australia, Argentina — where an abundant harvest could reintroduce bearish pressure toward the end of the horizon), and the EUR/USD rate (a stronger dollar favours European exports and can support euro prices) are not informational decoration. They are precisely the kind of variables that a conviction formed too early ignores.

The limits of seasonal hope

July and August remain, structurally, the weakest price window of the season because of the deep negative basis generated by physical harvest pressure. The situation improves from September as the basis converges toward futures, and October–December 2026 concentrate the most favourable estimated levels — 245–248.5 EUR/tonne — supported by export demand and by possible CBOT–Euronext convergence.

Yet there is a structural fact that deserves to be kept separate from seasonal enthusiasm: although December 2026 offers the best levels within this horizon, the futures curve shows that the absolute maximum of the entire available curve is May 2027, at 249.25 EUR. For those who have the capacity to finance long-term storage, this later window offers a marginal gain — 1–2 EUR/tonne — but it comes with the risk that the backwardation observed toward September 2027 may deepen as the next harvest approaches. There is no universally correct answer here. There is only a risk-benefit comparison that must be evaluated individually, according to the real storage costs and risk tolerance of each farm — because acting with clarity does not mean having a prediction; it means knowing exactly what you are assuming when you decide.

Note: This text is a structural interpretation of publicly available market data (Euronext MATIF, CBOT, USDA) and does not constitute financial, investment, or legal advice. Price estimates are not guaranteed — commodity markets are volatile and influenced by unpredictable meteorological, geopolitical, and macroeconomic factors. Final selling decisions must be adjusted according to each farm’s own storage costs, liquidity needs, and risk appetite. Consultation with an agricultural commodity broker or authorised financial adviser is recommended before acting on these estimates.